Allergan (AGN) Namenda Concerns 'Not a Big Deal' - Evecore ISI's Raffat

September 29, 2016 11:50 AM EDT
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Evecore ISI analyst Umer Raffat notes there is a lot of investor confusion related to Allergan (NYSE: AGN) Namenda press release this morning. He said in particular, investors are confused about this line:

If the district court ruling on these patents is upheld, there is a possibility that generic entry for Namenda XR could occur following an adverse Court of Appeals decision

While waiting on confirmation from the company, Raffat said "but it's not as big a deal".

He explains "reason being: the appeals court decision will focus on 2026 patent family … however, Namenda's 2029 patent went favorably for Allergan. The 2029 patent relates to the high dose Namenda XR specifically (28 mg). In other words, even if appeals court does NOT go well for Allergan on 2026 patents, we could see generic 7, 14 and 21 mg Namenda XR … however, 28 mg Namenda XR may still remain branded … AND, most impt: 28 mg represents 70% of the volume on Namenda XR. Consensus already models fair amount of erosion (with Namenda effectively going away in 2020 anyways). "



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