A Michael Bloomberg Presidential Bid Would Likely Give GOP a Win Over Hilary Clinton

Yesterday afternoon, news broke that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is officially considering a 2016 presidential bid. Early polling noted by Compass Point's Isaac Boltansky, citing recent data from Luntz Global, highlighted that if this were the case he would draw 18-19% of the Democratic vote from Secretary Hilary Clinton causing her to lose to GOP competitors in two of three hypothetical scenarios.

The polling data shows both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio would best Hilary Clinton in a three person race, with Mr. Bloomberg taking 29% and 28% of the total vote, respectively. Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton would beat Ted Cruz if he won the Republican nomination, with Mr. Bloomberg garnering 28% of the vote.

The firm still sees a low probability of Mr. Bloomberg entering the race, unless Mrs. Clinton stumbles significantly in the primaries.

"Given that we expect Clinton will secure the Democratic nomination, and Mr. Bloomberg’s candidacy would surely increase the odds of a GOP victory in the general election, we believe the odds of a Bloomberg presidential bid are 30%," Boltansky said. "The odds of a Bloomberg candidacy would increase dramatically, however, if Clinton either stumbles significantly in the primaries or loses the nomination outright."

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